VBD

πŸ“ˆ The Silent Reservoir: The Subclinical Infection SEIR Model for Dengue

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──────────────────────────────────────── 🧠 Conceptual OverviewIn arboviral epidemiology, the Subclinical Infection SEIR model provides a mechanistic framework for quantifying hidden drivers of dengue transmission. Unlike standard models that focus only on symptomatic infections, this formulation explicitly represents asymptomatic or subclinical infections, which often remain undetected yet contribute substantially to the viraemic pool and sustain mosquito infection. By … Read more

πŸ“ˆ Spatial Metapopulation Dynamics: Modeling Dengue Across Landscapes πŸ—ΊοΈ

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──────────────────────────────────────── 🧠 Conceptual OverviewIn the complex geography of arboviral spread, the Spatial Metapopulation Model provides a high-resolution mechanistic framework for Aedes aegypti–driven dengue transmission. This approach moves beyond mean-field assumptions by representing human settlements as discrete spatial patchesβ€”such as neighborhoods, cities, or districtsβ€”connected through human migration, while explicitly modeling short-range mosquito dispersal between adjacent patches. … Read more

πŸ“ˆ SVIR–SEI Model for Dengue with Climate-Sensitive Vector Bionomics and Imperfect Vaccination

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──────────────────────────────────────── 🧠 Conceptual OverviewThis framework extends classical dengue transmission models by integrating four core mechanisms: β€’ Imperfect vaccination with potential waning of vaccine-induced protectionβ€’ Climate-driven vector bionomics, including temperature-sensitive biting, mortality, recruitment, and extrinsic incubationβ€’ Virus importation from external sources into the resident populationβ€’ Natural infection–induced immunity following recovery The model is designed to evaluate … Read more

πŸ“ˆ Clinical Intervention and Vector Dynamics: A Revised SITR Model for Dengue

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──────────────────────────────────────── 🧠 CONCEPTUAL OVERVIEWDengue virus transmission is shaped by the interplay between human clinical management, mosquito vector ecology, and environmental drivers, particularly temperature. To capture this complexity, this revised SITR (Susceptible–Infected–Treated–Recovered) framework explicitly incorporates: β€’ Partial clinical uptake: Only a fraction of symptomatic infections receive timely treatment.β€’ Asymptomatic transmission: Untreated infectious individuals (including asymptomatic infections … Read more

πŸ“ˆ SIS-with-Treatment Model for Dengue with Thermal Vector Bionomics

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──────────────────────────────────────── 🧠 Conceptual OverviewThis model describes short-term dengue transmission dynamics in an urban setting under the following assumptions and mechanisms: β€’ SIS infection structure: Infection does not confer lasting immunity over the modeled horizon (weeks to months), which can be justified within a single serotype and short time windows.β€’ Clinical treatment effect: Treatment accelerates viraemia … Read more

πŸ“ˆ Climatic Forcing: The SIR Model with Time-Varying Transmission Ξ²(t)

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──────────────────────────────────────── 🧠 CONCEPTUAL OVERVIEWIn mathematical epidemiology, the SIR model with time-varying transmission Ξ²(t) provides a foundational framework for studying climate-sensitive diseases such as dengue. Unlike classical autonomous SIR models, this non-autonomous formulation explicitly accounts for environmental modulation of transmission, particularly through temperature-driven changes in Aedes aegypti bionomics, including biting rates, survival, and the extrinsic incubation … Read more

🦟 Targeting the Hotspots: A Structured Host–Vector Model for Dengue Superspreading

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──────────────────────────────────────── 🧠 CONCEPTUAL OVERVIEWClassical SIR models assume homogeneous mixing, which fails to capture the focal nature of dengue transmission. Empirical evidence indicates that a small fraction of locations or human subpopulations (β€œhotspots”) can drive a large fraction of transmission through elevated human–mosquito contact. This framework integrates (i) structured heterogeneity, (ii) temperature-dependent vector bionomics, and (iii) … Read more

πŸ“ˆ The Mosaic of Immunity: The SIR Model with Partial Immunity for Dengue

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──────────────────────────────────────── 🧠 CONCEPTUAL OVERVIEWDengue virus exists as four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4). Infection with one serotype confers lifelong homotypic immunity but only temporary cross-protection against heterologous serotypes. After cross-immunity wanes (typically within 6–18 months), individuals become susceptible to secondary infection, often with increased risk of severe disease due to antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). This … Read more

πŸ“ˆ Immunological Barriers: The Temperature-Dependent Vector–Host Model with Imperfect Vaccination for Dengue

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──────────────────────────────────────── 🧠 CONCEPTUAL OVERVIEWDengue virus transmission is shaped by complex interactions among human immunity, vector ecology, and climate. This revised model integrates:β€’ Imperfect mass vaccination with leaky efficacyβ€’ Temperature-dependent mosquito life-history traits, including biting, recruitment, mortality, and extrinsic incubationβ€’ Continuous virus importation via infected travelersβ€’ Explicit vector latency to represent EIP dynamics The framework enables … Read more

🦟 Breaking the Cycle: The SIR with Isolation Model for Dengue

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──────────────────────────────────────── 🧠 CONCEPTUAL OVERVIEWIn modeling vector-borne diseases like dengue, public health interventions that reduce human–mosquito contactβ€”such as clinical isolationβ€”can significantly disrupt transmission. The SIR with Isolation model extends the classic host–vector framework to explicitly represent the removal of viraemic individuals from the mosquito biting pool. This enables quantitative assessment of how rapid case isolation can … Read more